After two hurricanes ― what’s next for Tampa Bay real estate?

After a year of slowing home sales, the Tampa Bay housing market may dip even further over the next few months as consumers grapple with fallout from back-to-back hurricanes, real estate experts say.

Until recently, the Tampa Bay market was relatively strong compared to the rest of the country, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist for the real estate firm Redfin. But high prices finally put an end to the white-hot growth the region saw during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Single-family home sales in the Tampa, St. Petersburg, Clearwater metro area fell 17.5% since last year, according to the latest data from Greater Tampa Realtors.

The median price for a single family home in the metro area fell 1.4% year over year according to the September data release. But in the past five years, that price shot up nearly 65%, from $248,000 to $408,990.

Home sales are down 17% year over year and 33% over the past five years.

“Florida is no longer the deal it once was, especially with the rising cost of insurance and property taxes,” Fairweather said. “So you’re not getting as many of those out of state buyers.”

The devastation from this hurricane season could give buyers from places like New York or California yet another reason not to settle here.

One of the greatest challenges for the market has been a lack of available homes.

In September, the Tampa Bay area had about a four-month supply of homes. In a normal market, that would be closer to six months.

With so many homes rendered unlivable by hurricanes Helene and Milton, “we have a worse inventory shortage now,” Craig Beggins, president and CEO of Century 21 Beggins Enterprises said.

Even sellers whose homes weren’t severely damaged are thinking twice about listing. Some fear it will be harder to find a place to move. Others, like local real estate investor Josh Streeter, are worried about getting the best price for their properties.

Streeter had planned on selling two rental homes he owns in St. Petersburg. Now he’s holding off.

The homes are located in the floodplain but did not sustain damage.

Still, “If somebody hears they have to pay flood insurance right now…I don‘t know what that will do to the value,” he said. “I think these storms are going to be on people’s minds for a long time,”

Listings for storm damaged homes being sold “as is” or “for land value” are already popping up locally. Some may even sell at a loss.

Take, 1843 Oregon Ave., a 4-bedroom bedroom 2-bathroom home in St. Petersburg’s Shore Acres neighborhood. The owner paid $511,000 in 2022. They previously listed it for sale in September, before the hurricanes, with an asking price of $535,000. That listing was removed. Now, it’s been back on the market for about two weeks with an asking price of $385,000.

Streeter said he’s starting to hear about off market short sales for the first time since the 2008 housing market crash.

Working out a cash deal with an investor may be a good option for some homeowners who are looking to get out quick. But Beggins said the market is flooded with bad actors making low-ball offers.

“Some people are just so damn scared they’ll take anything,” he said. “We don’t want our customers falling prey to that.”

Jennifer Zales, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker who specializes in luxury waterfront property, said she does not believe this storm season will spark a mass exodus from coastal neighborhoods. Instead, people will opt for newer, elevated homes and they’ll pay top dollar to get that peace of mind.

“The builders I work with are already getting a tremendous number of request for new builds,” she said.

Though the next few months could be disruptive to the market, typically it doesn’t take long for home sales to rebound after a natural disaster, Fairweather said.

In many cases, prices actually rise as cities work to rebuild.

The Tampa Bay Times analyzed property data from Lee County which was battered by Hurricane Ian in 2022. By the following year, homes in the areas with the most flood insurance claims were selling for 9% more than in places with less damage.

Beggins advice for those considering selling is to hold off until they get more information from their insurance companies.

Some homeowners may even be eligible for mortgage forbearance, which will give them temporary reprieve from making payments while they figure things out.

“I think in three months, the consumers that have damaged properties will have an idea of if they can build number one, if they want to rebuild number two and if they can afford to rebuild number three,” he said.